Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.620947 1.837762 2.068849 2.333045 2.626282 2.941316 3.304915
2024-12-15 1.388004 1.697219 2.048339 2.474834 2.977039 3.547688 4.243178
2024-12-22 1.173125 1.541816 1.986303 2.557489 3.267421 4.115847 5.201064
2024-12-29 1.042579 1.467907 2.010515 2.745296 3.704914 4.905177 6.507970
2025-01-05 0.862652 1.303856 1.900154 2.751296 3.918726 5.445339 7.570418
2025-01-12 0.730222 1.182997 1.830110 2.801374 4.196431 6.097625 8.847013
2025-01-19 0.610866 1.061008 1.741094 2.813329 4.423561 6.706194 10.128199
2025-01-26 0.538215 0.997864 1.729038 2.934920 4.820221 7.588523 11.872898
2025-02-02 0.470367 0.930584 1.700803 3.027963 5.184693 8.459338 13.681761
2025-02-09 0.405128 0.855733 1.649077 3.076391 5.484913 9.261783 15.460449
2025-02-16 0.351687 0.792114 1.606666 3.134095 5.805297 10.122964 17.401138
2025-02-23 0.292444 0.705150 1.508972 3.082484 5.937052 10.695485 18.935846
2025-03-02 0.236698 0.615232 1.395238 2.994320 6.010486 11.203883 20.454040
2025-03-09 0.201844 0.562697 1.345935 3.020594 6.291959 12.089790 22.676576
2025-03-16 0.168581 0.505580 1.277311 2.999547 6.484693 12.841990 24.739943
2025-03-23 0.150592 0.481715 1.276319 3.116336 6.953752 14.126573 27.831998
2025-03-30 0.123228 0.425591 1.192201 3.045207 7.045935 14.734998 29.775850
2025-04-06 0.104076 0.386580 1.140751 3.037584 7.265064 15.598015 32.247652
2025-04-13 0.086717 0.347318 1.080709 3.000878 7.418529 16.347713 34.565725
2025-04-20 0.077267 0.330096 1.074111 3.088696 7.847324 17.666586 38.046592
2025-04-27 0.068125 0.310949 1.058620 3.152590 8.230193 18.924027 41.496346
2025-05-04 0.058921 0.288325 1.028748 3.175745 8.523253 20.021486 44.707955
2025-05-11 0.051416 0.269373 1.005694 3.213137 8.853023 21.219853 48.199100